ELECTION 2025: VCU poll shows narrowing lead for Democrats

Sal Orlando, Staff Writer

Heciel Nieves Bonilla, Assistant News Editor

Virginia’s 2025 statewide election is Nov. 4, just over a month away. On their ballots, Virginians will be able to vote for their next governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general — as well as their House of Delegates representatives.

Democrat leads narrow in statewide races

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate and former 7th District Congressional Rep. Abigail Spanberger is leading Republican candidate and incumbent Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, according to the VCU Wilder School of Government’s September Commonwealth Poll, which was conducted in August. The margin is three percentage points narrower compared to the previous poll.

Spanberger is more moderate than many democrats, which makes her more acceptable to a moderate electorate, VCU political science professor David Kerr stated.

“While our political system may be heavily polarized at the moment, a significant part of the electorate would like to see more hands reaching across the aisle,” Kerr stated.

As of Aug. 31, Spanberger has raised over $41 million for her campaign, while Sears has raised nearly $17 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Kerr stated Spanberger’s large campaign reserve affects the number of mailers, social media advertisements and people canvassing. 

“It contributes to enthusiasm and that’s something Spanberger seems to have a lot of,” stated Kerr. “It allows her to get her message out and take charge of crafting the issues.”

In the lieutenant governor race, Democratic candidate Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Chesterfield, is leading Republican candidate John Reid in the Commonwealth Poll 44% to 40%. What was a 10 point margin in the previous poll has gone down to a tight lead for Hashmi. 

Hashmi has fundraised $4.8 million, compared to Reid’s $815,301 raised, according to VPAP. 

Reid launched “Democrats for John Reid” on Sep. 16, a coalition of Virginia Democrats publicly aligning with Reid’s campaign, according to his website. Some officials included in the coalition are former state Sen. Joe Morrissey and former Richmond city councilwoman Kim Gray.

Robin Diehl McDougle, associate dean of VCU’s Wilder School, said having a high number of independent voters in this election creates more opportunities for candidates to win.

Attorney general race holds extra weight

Democratic candidate and former Del. Jay Jones, D-Norfolk, is leading the Republican candidate, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, at 46% to 40% according to the Commonwealth Poll.

Miyares has raised over $13 million in funds compared to Jones’ near $9 million. 

Bob Holsworth, a top Virginia political analyst and the founding director of the Wilder School, said the race may be one of the most important ones due to the possibility of a Democratic governor and a Republican attorney general. A split ticket has not been seen in Virginia since 2005.

“If you have a Spanberger and Miyares split, Miyares will be far more than a thorn in her side, because he will be the person who really articulates the position of the Commonwealth,” said Holsworth.

Miyares has been at the helm of his party’s fight for control of public universities — including a lawsuit over Democrats’ rejection of some of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s board appointees to UVA, GMU and VMI. 

VCU and other universities instated new restrictions on protesting prior to the fall 2024 semester after Miyares issued letters asking for the changes. The attorney general is the primary issuer of legal opinions for the commonwealth. 

‘October surprises’ hit two races

Two “October surprises” — which are generally last-minute political revelations that affect the outcome of elections — hit the lieutenant governor and attorney general races on Wednesday. 

In the attorney general race, The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported that Jones was cited for a reckless driving incident in 2022 after he was clocked speeding on Interstate 64 at 116 miles per hour, 46 over the speed limit. 

Jones completed 1,000 hours of community service for the incident, and half of that time was spent at his own political action committee. The declaration that he completed the service hours was also signed by Jones’ own longtime advisor.

Miyares has criticized Jones for the incident, and the way he carried out his service hours.

Jones was hit with a second scandal on Friday when National Review reported that he texted a Republican delegate  in 2022 about hypothetically killing then-House Speaker Del. Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah.

“Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, Hitler, and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head,” Jones wrote. “Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.”

The bombshell has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle, including his running mates Spanberger and Hashmi. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance both called for Jones to drop out of the race.

In the lieutenant governor race, Reid previously faced controversy after Youngkin asked him to drop out of the race when his Tumblr account featuring sexually explicit imagery was allegedly leaked. Reid has continuously denied the account was his.

The American Journal News reported on Wednesday that the same Tumblr account engaged with “Nazi porn” posted by accounts featuring racial slurs. The report has renewed calls — particularly from Democrats — for Reid to exit the race.

Advertising plays a key role

Democratic candidates have out-spent Republicans in advertising — over $22 million compared to their $14.6 million.

In the gubernatorial race, there have been nearly $3.5 million of independent expenditures to advocate for the election. Of the expenditures, around $3.2 million has been spent on anti-Spanberger advertisements.

“Sears, I think, has had more nasty attacks on Abigail Spanberger and I think that has turned a lot of people against her,” said Muris Redzic, a fourth-year accounting student.

Redzic said he believes that attack ads leave a bad taste in people’s mouths, and they are getting sick of it.

Northern Virginia will be key for candidates to win

Whichever candidates secure Northern Virginia’s votes will have a smoother path to victory, according to Kerr.

Northern Virginia has an estimated population of 2,601,818, according to the Northern Virginia Regional Commission, which makes it the state’s most populous region.

In recent presidential elections, the candidate who won Northern Virginia also won the entire state.

“This [Northern Virginia] is the most ‘vote intensive’ — or as some like to say, ‘vote rich’ — part of the state,” Kerr stated. “Win it big and you win the Commonwealth.”

Voters are still undecided

Some voters are still undecided on who to vote for in the upcoming election. According to the Commonwealth Poll, 10% are undecided over their pick for governor, 13% for lieutenant governor and 11% for  the attorney general.

The biggest issues voters are concerned about in this election are the rising cost of living, with 29% of voters citing it as their top issue. 12% of Virginians are also concerned about education and women’s reproductive rights.

Redzic said he plans to vote, but does not yet know who he will vote for.

“Before each election, I try to do as much research in, maybe a week in advance,” Redzic said. “I would do it sooner, but I probably wouldn’t retain [it].”

Kiannah Conway, a first-year social work student, is also not sure who she will be voting for, but still believes it is important to research before voting.

“We are voting for people to run our society, so it is important we make sure to pick the best one,” Conway said.

Virginians can participate in early voting until Nov. 1. Election day is on Nov. 4. Voting information, locations and hours are available at elections.virginia.gov.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This story has been updated to include a recent scandal regarding Jay Jones’ text messages in which he discussed hypothetically shooting Del. Todd Gilbert.