Previews and predictions for 2013-14 season

Nathan Heintschel 
Contributing Writer

The 2013-14 VCU men’s basketball team returns three of its top four scorers from a season ago and has the potential to secure its first Atlantic 10 Conference Championship en route to a deep NCAA tournament run. The Rams enter the season in the preseason AP top-25 for the first time in program history. As the 14th-ranked team in the nation, a Sweet 16 appearance is certainly possible.

If the Rams reach the Sweet 16 they will likely face a showdown against one of the projected No.1 seeds. The current projected No. 1 seeds are the University of Kentucky, Michigan State University, Louisville University and Duke University. Defeating any of these teams would allow VCU to reach the Elite 8, and the last time VCU made a run this far in the tournament, they reached the Final Four in 2011.

VCU’s success in the NCAA tournament is not solely dependent on winning the A-10. VCU earned a No. 5 seed last year without winning the conference, and they can expect a similar outcome if they have a repeat performance.

However, the Rams might experience a slight dip in seeding because of conference realignment. The A-10’s loss of Temple University and Butler University might lead to a drop in conference strength; the Rams could be closer to a No. 6 or No. 7 seed if they do not win the conference.

VCU’s preseason strength of schedule ranks 327 out of 351 Division I teams. Among the Atlantic 10, VCU has the lowest strength of schedule in the conference, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

Keep in mind that VCU’s strength of schedule will fluctuate as their opponents’ records change. The Rams finished last season with the 33rd-hardest schedule in the country.

Now the conference favorite, according to official A-10 preseason predictions, VCU lost four times against conference foes (University of Richmond, La Salle University, Saint Louis University and Temple) last year with three of the losses coming away from the Siegel Center.

But considering its improvement and a much weaker conference schedule, VCU could easily finish the 2013-14 season with a 13-3 record in the A-10. A one-game improvement from last year’s slate would almost certainly earn the Rams a No. 1 seed in the A-10 tournament.

No matter how far VCU goes in the tournament, the team’s success rests on the play of a combination of redshirt freshman talent andsavvy upperclassman that earned valuable tournament experience the past couple seasons.

Despite losing two starters in the offseason, VCU’s havoc will likely be just as potent as previous seasons. Its aggressive defense aims to convert steals and rebounds into quick points.

The loss of point guard Darius Theus means the Rams are losing out on 2.4 steals per game. However, Briante Weber is coming off a season in which he averaged 2.7 steals per game, and newcomers Jordan Burgess, Doug Brooks and Jarius Lyles could help bolster the defensive statistics. In the Black and Gold scrimmage, Brooks had four steals; Burgess and Lyles each had three. Look for VCU’s steals per game to hover somewhere around last year’s average of 12 per game.

One area the Rams could see a statistical improvement is rebounding. Juvonte Reddic led the team on the glass last year with 8.1 rebounds per game. Treveon Graham chipped in with 5.8 a contest. This year, VCU adds Florida State University transfer Terrance Shannon, who averaged 5.6 rebounds per game with the Seminoles a season ago. At 6-foot-8 inches and 240 pounds, Shannon should provide the Rams with depth in the front court and should be a big factor on the glass.

With the added emphasis on touch fouls this season, free throw attempts should increase across the board. The coaching staff has stressed its team’s position at the charity stripe, Shannon said, and the Rams look to improve on a season in which they shot 70.1 percent on 669 attempts from the line. VCU ranked 155th in the nation in free throw percentage in 2012-13 and converted just 13 of its 25 attempts (52 percent) in Friday’s exhibition against California University (Penn.)

Head coach Shaka Smart enters his fourth season with arguably the best roster and highest expectations in school history. With multiple conference player of the year candidates, three senior leaders and versatile guard play, the Rams enter 2013-14 as a complete team and a legitimate national championship contender.