Andrew Kerley, Executive Editor
The people of Virginia voted on Tuesday to pass the mid-decade redistricting amendment by a nearly three point margin — allowing the General Assembly to redraw Congressional district lines in a way that favors Democrats 10-1.
Virginia’s redistricting referendum was set up by Democrats, in their words, as a measure to fight President Donald Trump and his pressures to redistrict in other states to favor Republicans.
With the proposal’s passage, Virginia has a new Congressional map that will take effect immediately — opening the door for Democratic challengers in previously-solid red districts across the commonwealth.
Democrats spent over $64 million and Republicans spent over $21 million trying to swing the results in their favor, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Over 3 million people voted in the referendum.
Alyssa Morris, a first-year art foundation student, voted “yes” on the referendum because even though people have called the new map “gerrymandered,” Republicans are guilty of doing the same in other states.
“We may as well try to do that too, level out the playing field,” Morris said.
Alex Keena, an associate professor who studies political representation and elections, stated that, under the new map, voters will not have much of an effect on the outcome of the general election in any of the districts, except for Va-02, so the Democratic primary elections will be the only way for voters to influence who wins.
The condensed primary timeline set up by redistricting presents an extraordinary challenge for younger and first-time candidates, Keena explained.
“Typically, candidates get at least a year after redistricting to learn the new districts and prepare their ground game,” Keena said. “This year, candidates only have a couple of months. This dynamic gives well-funded candidates a huge advantage in the primary elections because it will allow them to organize, adapt to the new district boundaries, and build a campaign much more efficiently than candidates who are not as well connected with party insiders and wealthy donors.”
The reshaped map also allows Northern Virginia and its influence to “dominate,” according to Keena.
“This presents a unique opportunity for the wealthy to ‘buy’ members of Congress,” Keena said. “I expect money to pour in from out-of-state from all sorts of monied interests in an attempt to get their favored candidates elected. I also expect dark money to continue to flow into Virginia through the primary election. This has the potential to divide the Democratic Party in advance of 2028.”
Brian Cannon is a leader of the advocacy group No Gerrymandering Virginia who helped pass the constitutional amendment that established the bipartisan redistricting commission system the state has used for the last five years.
Cannon said the measure weakens Virginia’s democratic norms and “screws over” rural voters.
“It’s gonna make it look silly in the end,” Cannon said. “The reality is that these extra few seats will not matter in the national blue wave that’s coming. People are tired of Trump.”
The Democratic and Republican primaries for Virginia’s 11 Congressional districts will be held on August 4. The general election is on Nov. 3.