Tariff plan stirs uncertainty, anxiety from experts, businesses

Joshua Paler, Contributing Writer

President Donald Trump levied a new 10% “reciprocal” tariff on nearly every country, according to the White House. These changes have already stirred concern in Richmond.

Local business owners and professors at VCU warned the move could raise prices, stall the economy and isolate the United States from global trade.

Christopher Saladino, a political science professor who teaches international political economy at VCU, said the tariffs are “punitive” rather than strategic.

“That’s not what the administration is saying, but it seems pretty clear that when you put this many tariffs on many countries and say ‘tariffs’ endlessly, it creates negative economic activity,” Saladino said.

Saladino said there is no real economic case for the policy.

“There’s no set of economists out there who are on team tariffs. In fact, this has gone against most of the advisers, with the exception of Peter Navarro, who is the ‘tariff guy’ who doesn’t know much about them,” Saladino said.

The idea that tariffs will help American workers, especially those in manufacturing, does not hold up either. While a few industries might see short-term relief, broader markets could collapse under retaliatory tariffs, according to Saladino.

“We might do well with energy and steel, but we lose our market for energy and steel because those things can’t sell overseas,” Saladino said. “We’re pushing ourselves away from international politics. This impacts the entire planet.”

Saladino said there is a growing nostalgia for jobs that earlier generations spent decades trying to escape.

“There are people who see a future for themselves working in textile mills and chemical plants,” Saladino said. “But their parents and grandparents worked hard to make sure they wouldn’t have to. Now those same families are somehow convinced going backward is progress, and that’s not just unrealistic, it’s painful.”

Saladino pointed out that consequences are not hypothetical, they are already unfolding.

“There’s got to be a return on investment,” Saladino said. “But what we’re seeing now is a bad policy cycle and a lot of pain, especially for people who were promised something better.”

John Froitzheim, a political science professor at VCU, said the tariffs appeal to Americans without college degrees, many of whom feel left behind by globalization. But even if the policy connects with that base, they are likely to suffer the most.

“These same supporters are likely to feel the pain, as they will be paying much of the indirect costs through more expensive goods,” Froitzheim said.

Froitzheim said American manufacturing may not come back in “any meaningful way.”

“Manufacturing is robotic and very technical, so I’m not sure how many people these firms will hire without a college degree,” Froitzheim said.

Meanwhile, small businesses in Richmond are also watching costs climb.

Lauren Meinhard, general manager at Pizza and Beer of Richmond, said her team has started seeing price jumps on items like drink syrups and imported goods.

“We’re just keeping a very close eye on our invoices,” Meinhard said. “If things get too expensive, we’ll have to switch brands, or worse, cut hours or let people go.”

Meinhard said layoffs would be a last resort, but the pressure is building.

“I hope it doesn’t get to that point, especially when they’re our good employees,” Meinhard said.

Hollie Mann, a political theory professor at VCU, said the policy feels less like a plan and more like a deliberate cycle of disruption.

“It has been a time of enormous chaos and uncertainty, both in terms of communication and policy,” Mann said. “It doesn’t seem like a strategy or a plan, which makes me nervous.”

Mann said the tariffs are part of a broader pattern where Trump creates dramatic standoffs to justify his own authority.

“You make the problem and you solve it,” Mann said.

Mann also warned that the U.S. is losing its credibility abroad. “We are an increasingly isolated country,” Mann said. “We really can’t overstate how removed he is from basic political and economic knowledge.”

John Aughenbaugh, another political science professor at VCU said tariffs are taxes and Americans will be the ones paying them.

“If it increases the cost too much, then Americans may not buy stuff, and that’s almost inevitably a precursor to a recession,” Aughenbaugh said.

Aughenbaugh added that the U.S. is not positioned to rebuild its manufacturing sector quickly. The country lacks the raw materials, the facilities and the trained workforce to replace global supply chains.

“We would have to import those raw goods, develop, train a workforce and build the plants,” Aughenbaugh said.

Augenbaugh said Donald Trump is being a responsive politician to a “big chunk” of his voter base, who wanted to reorient trade policy.

“It may be stupid, but that’s politics,” Augenbaugh said.